From October 2007 to August 2008, China's stock market is no doubt that the crisis of the world's attention, the real estate industry may have to follow suit, and here I am to analyze the meaning of the stock market and real estate crisis.
First, let's look at what is a crisis?
(a) the crisis is the dangerous period
this is very easy to understand, such as the A-share index in 2007 in the 6200 points, you buy a lot of stocks or funds Now, 10 months later, A shares is 2400 points, the value of your stock will decline in proportion, for people who do not sell, that is very dangerous.
real estate too, if in 2007 people in real estate investment, such as in Shenzhen, his real estate value is also very dangerous, may have slipped 20-30% better than the stock market lost less.
(b) of the crisis is not a dangerous moment but a process
Many people think that the crisis was a time, or time, in the stock market and real estate, the longer the crisis, not just a few days, nor is it just a few months, this political or military events with many different, so do not think the stock market and real estate crisis, there is a way to resolve the crisis immediately, or soon will be able to resolve.
do not have a crisis in the stock market and real estate there was an immediate panacea, the government intervention is generally not excessive, because a lot of money, the Government has not the money, in general, to the extent that there is no serious, especially in the stock market, where gambling already is, do not call the stock market casino and called it.
(c) because of the crisis high prices caused by the stock market and real estate crisis
an obvious feature is the high price and caused real estate prices, we still do not see far because of low prices caused by the stock market crisis and housing crisis, but in other industries, such as oil, in the late 70s, as oil prices are low, 10 dollars a barrel, and causing the economic crisis in the southern United States, because the oil industry does not make money.
from the current point of view, the domestic real estate also have to enter the crisis conditions, but most people can not afford a house, this is the beginning of the crisis.
(d) Risk is an opportunity after opportunity
not in crisis, but after the crisis, so we can to look at this crisis: risk after the crisis is opportunity. For example, you have a lot of stock, but you do not sell, or sell after he bought, then you may have already lost or is so chaotic low shareholder hands there is not much money, even if the stock market after the danger has passed, you do not have funds entrance, there is no chance.
opportunity will come, but must wait until the crisis has passed, when the crisis is over? This is the most important issue.
real estate market is not the same mechanism and, in general, lags behind the crisis in the real estate market, how much time lag in the end, countries less consistent ,6-9 months the majority, there are a -2 years, that is, the stock market crisis and the real estate crisis is not simultaneous, or when the stock market through the crisis, the real estate is still in crisis, in most cases, the real estate cycle than the crisis the stock market is longer.
(e) crisis, the 80% risk, 20% is the opportunities
we all know the so-called 20/80 law, whether it is used in a crisis like this? such as stock market crisis, the majority, 80% of the investors are loss, and only a few people who may not have losses of 20%. In the real estate industry may also be that the majority of developers, intermediaries and so trouble, only a few�ȹ�Σ����, can be expected, the domestic real estate industry chain will have a large number were killed in the dangerous, is the chance to survive.
(f) an opportunity where?
our relationship is the most opportunities, not dangerous, the most obvious opportunity is characterized by a low price because this is the opposite risk, that opportunity comes, stocks or real estate prices are significantly lower.
prices in some parts of the United States has declined by about 30%, because of previous rises too much, in July, the transactions in these areas increased significantly, but 40% of homes seized by banks. In addition, many U.S. construction company's stock also fell by 3 years time 50-80%, which is also an opportunity.
many domestic real estate stocks listed companies fell the powerful, this is a great opportunity to invest in real estate is another way to invest in real estate shares, as long as no Vanke closure of the crisis, China Vanke's shares also rose, but to wait until the danger of the past.
real estate industry, too, the real estate crisis has no idea how long, but not a few months, one year, to make it clear that the opportunity to come gradually, not suddenly to.
(VII) was born in a crisis most innovative
in a crisis, many enterprises will be only in order to survive effort to innovate, without the pressure of survival, many businesses and individuals will be satisfied, to abandon the innovation. We will find a severe crisis, often have a few innovative and successful companies.
The old crisis, a new crisis will emerge, but not immediately, and to live for many years, our goal is not a new crisis in the disappearance.
crisis is the danger has passed the opportunity, we have to be patient.
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