MM and friends this afternoon chats
Moderator: users Hello everyone, welcome once again came together with Sina chat room to chat with Panzong. or the first call Panzong it with you and say hello!
Pan Shiyi: Hello everybody!
the next house on the market depends on the supply of What happens? buyers will have drastic changes in what kind of impact?
Pan Shiyi: After this adjustment, I think the impact on the market first in the housing supply would be reduced, because the market supply of the house to form, depends on three factors: land, money and developers. the present, no shortage of land and developers, so the future supply of houses on the market depends on the Business has not had time to put the land into the house for sale, these enterprises more difficult, because they have no chance to even lower prices.
Moderator: RMB exchange rate for the first time breaking seven, you think that RMB appreciation will have what the real estate sector directly or indirectly affected?
Pan Shiyi: the real estate industry is mainly dominated by domestic demand in the industry, the impact of the appreciation of RMB is not Like other export-oriented industries will be as big. However, for those of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan customers, if they want to buy a house in the Mainland, the RMB appreciation will make their mind sooner, this part of the customer's purchase has a positive role in promoting.
Moderator: quick ratio will you? quick ratio with the current policy environment and what kind of relationship and interaction?
Pan Shiyi: The economic and financial environment is a good time to study the real estate company is to look at it Net asset value, turnover, land reserves; but in bad economic situation and financial environment, such as the current subprime mortgage crisis on the international, domestic monetary policy tightening, then a measure of a healthy or unhealthy real estate company Main evaluation indicators and the debt ratio is its ability to repay the loan immediately.
Moderator: User income to be affected do?
Pan Shiyi: real estate sales from last year's point of view, to reach 2.9 trillion yuan, China's economy is already a huge industry, if the scale of the real estate industry shrinking , the impact on local finance is obvious, mainly of two parts:
part of the taxes. real estate taxes are mainly three parts, sales tax, land value-added tax and enterprise income tax. sales tax will be affected first, the other two part of a certain size and market lag, about six months to a year's time will show up;
Another local factor is the biggest financial impact of land transfer. Last year, the developer of the land transfer to the Government more than 1 trillion yuan, and this part of the land transfer is not included in the report to the local people's congresses of the budget report. Of course, on the western mainland cities, the land transfer may account for the proportion of revenue is relatively small, but in the coastal open cities, some large, large cities, the proportion of total land transfer is still very substantial.
we have seen some reports of some coastal cities in 2007 counties, benefits to those counties over the previous year's GDP. can get to this conclusion: If the real estate industry into a recession, significantly reduce the size of the impact of local finance in time, the scale is very straightforward.
Moderator: friends from Shanghai capacity range of enterprise adjustment will be the object of this change.
Host: One netizen asked Panzong, the real estate market downturn caused by the earlier collapse of a large number of intermediary companies, a lot of people are unemployed, upheaval decoration, furniture, building materials, landscape, municipal, including property management, etc. are very labor-intensive industry, so the shrinking of the real estate industry employment will cause relatively large impact.
Host: One netizen asked Pan total, Panzong your ?
Pan Shiyi: If the real estate industry is not able to adjust, resulting in industry size has shrunk dramatically, then I think the impact will be in three areas:
First, the polarization of the real estate industry. This differentiation is not the size of these enterprises, but rather it healthy or unhealthy.
Second, local government revenues would be reduced.
Third, other real estate related industries will increase employment pressure.
The current difference between the size of the real estate industry is not only the difference between strong and weak
Moderator: On? This spring is coming before the real estate point of view is contradictory. Now that you have more say in the industry reshuffle of the suspects, how do you look at this issue?
Pan Shiyi: New turning point theory, real estate companies to adjust, the real estate industry thing, because lack of money, land and funds should be re-allocated, so that a more reasonable combination of these resources. China's real estate market conditions and I have been optimistic about the market demand. Again I also optimistic about China's economic development, although the process of development may encounter many difficulties, but these difficulties are temporary, it will go through a rational adjustment to overcome.
To illustrate the real estate industry in the coming period lack of funds, in addition to macro-analysis, the net twice in the last chat, I also cite the Hong Kong-listed company's financial report within the housing stock as part of the data and the domestic real estate companies listed on the annual report data, the annual data are those listed published its own.
these two online conversations, a number of real estate development company owner trustee tell me so I do not want to speak. But I think, clearly sort out the reality of the current real estate market in this industry to overcome our difficulties is good. Of course, one can master any one hundred percent of the information and data, but through the exchange of all of us to discuss and jointly increase the wisdom and information, we aim to get closer and closer from the right.
When I express these views, again like the only thing is there is no pure motives. If the motivation to express their views do not pure, just to individuals, small groups or individual companies, it said it would be sour, it will farther and farther away from the correct target. if it is from pure motives, stick to the principles of integrity, no matter how much pressure should keep going.
remember my analysis completed in early 2004, some of the real estate industry data, that the next few years, tremendous pressure on housing prices, I expressed my judgments. To this end, by the society and the media from a lot of pressure, but prices continued to rise a few years later to prove that my assessment is correct . If the pressure in early 2004, I was mainly from the society and the media today is mainly from peer pressure.
Moderator: the conclusions of these companies will go wrong? What metrics and formulas, they will see what kind of problems?
Pan Shiyi: This is a professional financial problems, you can check the online index and the meaning of these indicators, Internet has specific formulas and instructions, and have a very authoritative interpretation. I am often not sure of the concepts are on the Baidu search, this is the article I'm writing to express their views and personal habits, for your reference.
Moderator: User immune to real estate companies can ultimately be exempted from the catastrophe it? pattern of dramatic changes in the industry after what will happen? small company like ours have salvation of the road, would like to hear your opinion?
Pan Shiyi: Comparison of the current tense financial environment real estate industry, there is no difference between the size, only the difference between strong and weak. encounter difficulties we need is to face these difficulties in a rational manner, rather than deceive themselves, be prepared to adjust the size of the company to the appropriate level, and their ability and level of matching funds. I do not like the media commonly used , nor is it engaged in class struggle.
Moderator: A netizen asked Panzong, according to a number of small and medium sized developers not survive you say 100 days, has in the past 20 days, and you think your prediction correct? < br> Pan Shiyi: First, I never said that small and medium sized developers not survive the 100 days, this is the media's interpretation. My words were: the next 100 days, the Chinese real estate industry, drastic changes will occur. This change does not depend on the size of the real estate business depends largely on his financial situation is not healthy, the debt ratio is not high, the adjustment is not the right direction.
In addition, it Skynet talk, I and a friend lunch , to discuss the future development trend of real estate, I said the next three months may be the real estate industry needs to be adjusted and re-combinations of three months, three months and 100 days that far. I saw that someone did seriously, I finished 100 days from the countdown began. In fact, I have repeatedly stressed that the 100 days is just a When the Forum has communicated privately with Zhong Wei may be a problem this year, the list of listed real estate companies, I do not want to know the specific name of the property, but you can disclose what kind of business will probably go wrong?
Pan Shiyi: Shenyang to participate in the forum, I just listed on our analysis of the financial report after the conclusion and Zhong Wei, an exchange of views. Zhong Wei that he vast majority of these enterprises in the judgments, and our analysis of these companies have the financial report the conclusion is the same, but there are two exceptions. we do not have any so-called black list, this is a misrepresentation. on the other non-listed company's financial report we can not obtain, nor does not own any corporate initiative been published in any analysis of the financial statements.
Moderator: User in the current market opportunities and market it?
Pan Shiyi: Over the past year, the real estate market, land market, or whether the housing market, the market price of the most important signal confusion, reflecting the most essential and most sensitive price signals are not functioning. emotions, instead of arbitrary judgments of the market supply and demand in the most essential analysis and research. to the second half of 2007, the market price on the land of the signal and interference signal is formed positive feedback, the real estate industry, especially between the land market and real estate companies are adjusting, but overall, China's urban housing demand and market opportunities have not changed.
Moderator: ; the reporter asked Panzong Yuzhong Bin, the subject of early flow Guangqu 15, the Panzong interested? money in the current era of real estate, whether to continue the land would be subjected to cold, the Government will break into the market transaction?
Pan Shiyi: The land is on the 15th Guangqu Beijing was. We have always been interested in the land, kept an eye on when the government will re-launch of the land to
carried around the Olympics host: You know what this topic incisive point of view?
Pan Shiyi: The join me. We talked about each of the Olympic city of Beijing Rising. They have some very exciting talk, and summarize the auspices of HE Li is also very exciting, you can see on this forum in SouFun field records .
in this forum, I emphasize that China's urban development, social progress and the greatest impact there are two things:
first, China's accession to WTO, so that China's integration into the world. < br> The second, the 2008 Olympic Games held in Beijing, which not only China's economic, physical integration with the world, but also the social aspects of China from the integration with the world.
Beijing's opportunity and dreams You do what the Olympics?
Pan Shiyi: these disturbances are temporary disturbance today, tomorrow may be interference. do anything would encounter difficulties, these difficulties and disturbances behind the mystery is to nurture our capacity, improve our quality, character and ability when we have a defect in some of these disturbances and difficulties will come to us. One thing is to most people as little as possible to increase between the injury and hatred.
SOHO China in 2008 the main work is carried around the Olympic Games, starting from their own work, services for the Olympic Games, built around the good of our project every road, every piece of green space, the building of our float dress beautiful light, to meet the guests around the world.
Moderator: User > Pan Shiyi: The pros and cons of hosting the Olympic Games in Beijing, I have already said, it benefits the Chinese people is far greater than its disadvantages.
we present some of the difficulties encountered by the rise of our nation are some of the test. Through these tests we will become stronger, resilient and open, but also improve our deal with the problem, ability to overcome difficulties.
Moderator: User projects within the City of Victoria are required to suspend work, your project will be affected you?
Pan Shiyi: We did not receive any message from the Beijing Municipal Government said that a Beijing Municipal Construction Committee official news is that rumor has been out twice, said the project will not stop during the Olympic Games.
Moderator: User large launch ceremony, many stars and leaders have come CCTV, will in the future there are many activities that you like?
Pan Shiyi: SOHO office rental rates are still very high occupancy rate has exceeded 80% of the. For the next commercial portion of the positioning, we analyzed and investigated a few months ago and decided based on the creativity, the establishment of the first 26 months can open a fashion Union. In the opening front and rear, we will do some activities to enhance the business climate and popularity here.
Moderator: User Guanghua Road saw a residential flats are demolished, and very fast, is not your new projects are being started?
Pan Shiyi: residential flats is the schedule for a dozen years of real estate, is the last piece of land Guanghua road , the dismantling of the project is nearing completion, the project plan we have officially declared to the Beijing Municipal Planning Commission, this project is our Guanghua Road SOHO2.
expected here before the Olympics can be split level.
Guanghua Road SOHO2 removal of the old staircase, the project site
Boao Forum for Asia annual real estate sub-forum is to discuss the most enthusiastic
Moderator: One netizen asked Panzong, Boao Forum for Asia held tomorrow, I heard you and the chief The real estate sub-forums are seat guests, do not know what issue will this time high on?
Pan Shiyi: The Boao Forum for Asia in the the current environment in which the real estate industry. moderator Phoenix Zeng ink, Huayuan chief, Palm Springs Zeng Wei, Construction Policy Research Center Director Chen Huai, Fred Hu, managing director of Goldman Sachs Group, and I will join the forum.
annual Boao Forum for Asia real estate are the most popular sub-forum to discuss one of the most lively forums. look back a few years, Boao Forum for Asia real estate on real estate discussion development of the market is forward looking.
to your forum in Boao Forum will host a business, is this what kind of forum? ideal start for those of us young people harbor what kind of help?
Pan Shiyi: Boao Forum for Asia in this period, We will Boao Kempinski Hotel's Chen Feng, Zhang Yue, Ren Zhiqiang, Li Yifei, Tang Min, Zhang Dewang, Shen Peng, and me. The have been officially launched.
Shanghai government to encourage college students venture, into a special fund to support the project. The seminar hopes to inspire young people's entrepreneurial enthusiasm.
Last year, we in the Take your success story to our lectures, your real estate professional for our students in learning the real estate industry you have any good suggestions?
Pan Shiyi: the urbanization process, the development of large-scale real estate industry are the best case. I hope that students of real estate specialty well with the process of urbanization, urban development, these realities of the case to learn.
Moderator: User a book some experiences, ideas, write to share with you; the same time, is also a summary of their own.
Host: One friend asked Panzong from Tianjin, we can see your new book you?
Pan Shiyi : Wang wrote, Zen and the main focus on your relationship with people, how do you see the difference between you?
Pan Shiyi: in the real estate industry, I often think Wang and Ren generation they belong to, with Ren's words, they are a also different.
Moderator: There is such a netizen to make such a statement, saying that Panzong not interested in questions of the poor. Pan always do?
Pan Shiyi: We are all equal in the online , there is no difference between rich and poor, and hope in real life who is not too much emphasis on the poor, who are rich, we are all equal.
Host: One of the friends from Sichuan have such a message , Pange I remember when we build a house in the country is always crying, and neighbors together to help to build up. Now the state as the most profitable land sales, real estate, became something big fart now the most popular social discussion problem, even more than World War III could occur more appealing to the eyes of ordinary people, hey, really do not understand.
Pan Shiyi: Indeed, we were young someone building a house, the village people to help, because the building house, a family is really the biggest thing country people. But we want to see progress, and is now building a house is no longer a village of people to help, but to the various industries, construction, installation, equipment, decoration, mechanical and electrical, etc. , to help more and more people, and we all work together to help, contact us for a market economy, is a specialized division of labor, which is the progress of society, but also the progress of the real estate industry. Today, the house number and quality of construction far more than with everyone yelling we were young, when the entire village to help build more, better.
Moderator: Well, today's web chat on here, thanks Panzong, Pan Zongming days to go to Boao, and He hoped that the next web chat will give us more wonderful content.
Pan Shiyi: Thank you!
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