Theme: Baidu C2C and Ali listed the impact of the industry
Time: evening of 23 October 2007 Venue: International Center Thunis layer
Organizers: TechWeb, generous advice, Tencent Technology
Moderator: TechWeb / generous advice Zhu Zhijun
guests:
analysts:
Lubbe hope is looking Consulting president, vice president of
Liu Xingliang generous consulting senior analyst at IDC China
Huang Yongtao
Media representatives:
Linming Jun Tencent production by the Executive Director of the Centre
Bingshu CNET planning
Guo Kaisen
Li Lihong, general manager of IT network of experts deputy editor of Science and Technology
Tencent famous blog:
Valley Long blog Online deputy editor
Zhuhui Long, vice president of the famous blog
Bumian Youku blog
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famous scene following the text order:
TechWeb / generous advice Zhu Zhijun
Moderator: activity before We first briefly explain the process, first of all into the first half, first half, Tie Li, Baidu put the second half, two points up and down. Kasai said before the three teams, one is square, counter-parties, cheerleading.
first We divided Ali cheerleading, we voluntarily choose either side. First elected promising enterprises and Ali Lara Ali Lara stock market development we can sit here. are not optimistic about the ride here, you can sit here in the middle. no I imagine in the situation. cheerleader for three, right? activity began to tell why the support before the Ali Baba, Ali Baba to support a person about three minutes, two minutes also, you are optimistic about the reasons, about two to three minutes, starting from you .
Advisory president is looking
Lubbe Lubbe Wang Wang: I said a few words, I Alibaba emotional support, I am a good impression, I was in love with it. In general, in fact, many media also Some have been some misunderstanding on Alibaba, Alibaba is that we are too concerned about China's Internet and entertainment, too concerned about the media, too concerned with entertainment features, is to overlook the commerce that together, which together have been ignored by the media , and we see the development of Alibaba quietly, the situation is not much to see, in fact I have at least three or four years I am ignoring it, I used to do foreign trade, as I did in 2056 in Guangdong foreign trade, I returned home, in 2000, I knew this site Alibaba, but then, when the home was in the IT sector Sina forum is the most fire, and then I saw a lot of human hair when the topic is dead Alibaba, Alibaba will be how to die, we discuss a topic like this, then I thought, I actually do foreign trade. I have to bring the benefits of foreign trade companies, I was very understanding. I When do foreign trade before, in order to obtain an export opportunity, and I want to go to a certain newspaper, watch them on the board of a newspaper called the export opportunities for small pieces, what country, what a company buy goods, that this piece of information I want to to pay ten dollars, every time I go I want to look good after hundreds of such information, and then spend several hundred dollars, may spend thousands of dollars, and then back to the company, I really inside this hundred, there are failed to achieve one, the contact letter sent to a response or can be realized ten replies, are unknown, because at that time in the newspaper that this information has been two or three months, so old, that is, newspapers do not know Where that information, the last log, the last issue of this information to the process was two or three months time. So when the Internet in real time into contact with foreign buyers, I know there Alibaba of this function, then our foreign trade enterprises, particularly helpful, so then I like Ali Baba.
then I just by chance in a special occasion, a press conference, Ma invited to lecture, and then it is a buffet lunch, I straighten out plate and found Ma, Ma was standing next to me, then I talk to him.
I would simply say that I know Ma was done, I propose to Ma, I want some time with him , Alibaba would like to know the process of operation of the entire site, that he had no time to Beijing, the second time in Beijing to about me, we talked for two hours. Later, I give an article called Before I returned, was in some foreign media read Alibaba, Alibaba, but the country is challenged this model. At that time I felt a sudden gap, so I found the article I came out, and then Sina's IT Forum to the point of view, I found how to discuss the death of Ali Baba a lot of sound or small, really can not see, maybe I really played a role in the articles.
after I finish this article until now several years time, I also forget the existence of Ma, have forgotten the existence of Alibaba. until 2004, I went to Hangzhou, attended Alibaba happened to network operators in the General Assembly, I feel the atmosphere in the General Assembly, so that I re-think my previous e-commerce a few years to forget, it is very problematic, because that place Ma in Hangzhou, he was quietly doing a special blockbuster thing, all I can say.
chair Person: Well, thank you, off we talk about, please Linming Jun, Lin Mingjun wrote two days ago a very famous article.
Tencent produced by the Center Director Lin Mingjun
Linming Jun: Just Lu teacher talks a lot, I also support the Ali Baba, why support it?
first point, I was Zhejiang, was his fellow, so that I support him, the first is to their hometown as a starting point. Secondly, I Lu would like to talk about the teacher, in fact, it's just such a participation model, I do not particularly agree with, because I think there are too many failures before the Internet model, and everyone's experience is still very much, mainly Ma and his The team, which is very deep for me. I met with him about four or five times, each time to go do not feel like the changes to the details of the special memories. IT sector has a very famous people have told me said that so many Chinese Internet case, why do so many projects fail, in fact, is not successful or failed, but people do not do a good job. I went in 2002 in Hangzhou, was doing Taobao, the newly established When I was most impressed with is that they execute the team developed a system that is very similar to pyramid schemes, MLM is now very bad impression to everyone, when this area in Zhejiang, similar to this approach is to lower or head with others to want, or must take to do this project successfully, I think this atmosphere is worth learning.
is also a little bit, I went to a trip in 2005, Hangzhou, and then they have a new building, the new building is very nice cover, probably rent it. Of course he's very good equipment, there are many conference rooms and meeting room renovation is very beautiful, because he also advocates the legendary Jin Yong's novels there are many things very impressive. In addition, I noticed that his people at all levels talking about a lot of projects, the project teacher Lu said earlier, very optimistic about that. But I think more important is the implementation of his project, because when I There is a very big question, is doing the B2B Alibaba or just the C2C Ye Hao, has a very big problem of execution, if he has no problem with execution, then, OK, he is the probability of success very large. but once the problems encountered in the execution of his operating costs are very large. But then the cooperation of a number of large, should give him a lot of financial support, Alibaba essence of his cash flow is very good, because, like Taobao model, similar to e-banking model. short term, I am optimistic about.
I have talked about so much, with a total of a little of this business model is not recognized or that the evaluation of good and bad, is that he and his team that, from what I know, I am quite promising.
Moderator: So you two fellow feeling is good, there are feelings. well, the following Long Valley are invited.
deputy editor blog network
Valley Long Valley Long: Yes, I think I'm speaking from personal feelings unpleasant Alibaba, including him. but from the business, I From an objective point of view that I am optimistic about the future development of Alibaba. I think the listing Alibaba Why was such a big sensation, the Chinese e-commerce from the middle of Ali forty-eight to experience a lot of Alibaba, Alibaba's listing should be a landmark event, it should be said that the Chinese e-commerce start landed. So Ali Baba market, into a past of the Internet that we rely on to attract attention, by playing a fundamental concept to change now the. at least by the concept of Web site, or the so-called business model, in fact, we now see he is now playing Alibaba is a kind of layout, and this layout is now the Internet companies need to do such a network is that he more valuable, a division of expression.
Alibaba So I think it is a few pieces of the business, including its Taobao, Alipay it, it is constructed around the entire Alibaba in this empire, so a business empire an environment in which to build, but in fact many years ago, I remember Alibaba attended an event with a bunch of journalists to expand the training, then it is a small company, and then gradually fade out the company later on, in fact, a lot of After the forgotten people of this company, and then we are more optimistic about some other business sites. But when the market today, take it forward to this book to see the past few years he really paid off, do a lot of commercial distribution of things, so I have a comparison, in fact, listed on Alibaba, which has a billion in essence to such a level, and the first like Sina, Sohu has been unstoppable market, we have been working on these days, it can really Baidu to do at this level to compete for one of Ali Baba, a Tencent, there is a Baidu, which we think it should be the first echelon of the Internet. but each has a different path, Ma should be a pure business, and this is undeniable. so he every piece of each step, it is around the business to do, so you see him today, Alibaba is a purely commercial company and other companies, including as Baidu , it is a technical company, it has been the market value today, in fact, society as a return of his technology, rather than commercial exchange. So from that point on, I think if I gave him to be a location, then do I think Alibaba is a package, a commercial contractor, you're in there B2B, there will be search, payment, etc., this thing is very sound, this contract is not easy to do.
and Baidu I think it is more like an open chain, he use his brand advantage, he can go around the expansion, but it is difficult to form an overall structure. So I think Alibaba is a current is the most stable in the business of a state, and I also quite optimistic about its future, because the starting point, Ma is a businessman, this is my opinion.
famous blog Bumian
Bumian: Actually, I We like to think that before , and from the perspective of capital is also promising a lot of people. I think at least from the awareness of Hong Kong to Ma or Ma from the business understanding on the very support for both Chinese companies, I think from the point of valuation or the market will have a growth.
Moderator: What do you here?
Guokai Sen: I just feel a bit boring, I said my point of view, because sitting in this position, I do not think the other side. optimistic Ali Baba's also more, I just looked at the numbers, it may be two billion a year profit, it is now about a hundred times earnings, from the international capital market is still relatively optimistic about Ali Baba, from its origins in terms of is relatively good, I want everyone to Alibaba on the location of a large point of view, the first one to say such a large appreciation of the renminbi environment because Alibaba is dependent on China's foreign trade industry, which means that it is doing Chinese manufacturers to find export opportunities. I also do corporate operations, I am very clear that people inside the Ali Baba has been complaining that they feel more and more of his own products, not sold, the more their users the more I come to buy their GUIDEC, is not to find a buyer by. In fact, this is a whole market environment, that is now 1 to 7.5 yuan, to its more than 3 to 1 or 1 to 5, the entire Chinese manufacturing to be a great crisis. then built in China and the Chinese system of such an environment it, Ali Baba in the long run I feel it is rather worry about it, then the short term I have seen it market may be to 500m600 one hundred million Hong Kong dollars, that is amazing, it is a very large company, from the Internet perspective, we all know his grades up about 10%, and if so, I guess he may be more than 100 to 150 times subscribed. That is the short term may be at least 50% upside, short term I'm going to subscribe to his stock, but I think the long years I am not very optimistic about 3m5.
In fact, I would also like to remind you detail, that is, after many Ma said that his company not listed, because he did not need the money, because he probably has on hand before going public about 5m6 billion U.S. dollars in cash, if the market after it added about 20 billion U.S. dollars of such a number, I just saw the phone, there is so much money why is it listed? which I doubt a very important factor is its major shareholder may be impaired, or his major shareholders may have to cash in, because he so long, he has an investment period, I think this is a very important market power. So why not choose it and choose the United States listed in Hong Kong? There are many factors, it is now Hong Kong to over twenty-nine thousand points, I Perhaps the most important personal feeling is that its business model or in the U.S. capital markets are relatively difficult to explain. even though he claims is a very strong communication and a person, or his business in the United States is a very influential person, but In the first line is the only recognized industry or money on the secondary market, I think it's recognized Western counterparts also need a process, basically these.
Moderator: Please Lihong below.
Li Lihong : I think that Ma is not optimistic about the sales from one of them, can do now I admire him, just said that the third point of view I support it, and that Ma has been talk before the listing, now why the market, a important reason is that he is the biggest shareholder, there is a very important reason, we can now see that some of Ma's share is very small shares.
, but in the media point of view, I think I think, There are two points on Alibaba are not optimistic about the reasons, one is that, in the next two years, I personally think that the Chinese market have not yet reached a mature stage, and Ali Baba is still a long way to go, especially in the C2C market, this one, for example, the C2C-based Alibaba a really Taobao, and in fact the current development of this piece is not very good, because I think the second point from the core competitiveness of enterprises to consider, then, technically Alibaba really is no advantage, either, and compared with Tencent and Baidu also compared. The third point is that a questionable point of view, that there is now a view that Alibaba's merger with rival Yahoo, and very likely to account for to his income as a proportion of relatively large, I also quite agree with this view, in particular a recent statement illustrates this point even more.
Moderator: Well, thank Lihong, Liu Xingliang.
Liu Xingliang: I said my point of view.
Liu Xingliang: Lin always said they were fellow, so support me and he is not a fellow so I will not support him.
Ma believe that words are not a lot of people, he said many things are lying, saying that market is not listed, similar to the case. Also, I am also not very optimistic about his faith on. because he's the business, may be in three to five years may also be a better momentum, that is, many reasons, and this much to say. Again, that is he is a great business, a lot of integration there are still many problems, in addition to this, other aspects are also very much. concrete will not say more, I said the bar.
Moderator: Thank you, Liu Xingliang, listen to the views of the middle man.
Huang Yongtao: I heard later I found today is not the three factions, that is, two schools, or is the middle, or is half-baked. I have listened to what I am more agree with Guo Kaisen said that, in fact, they basically said Guo Kaisen I want to say, Ali Baba is indeed a very good business, and that companies are now also see some figures Although a bit right now, with the original leather is not the same blow, but basically going up by heart, and now in 2004, 05,06,07 the first half of this figure has been doubled, so that every day seems Tax a million taxpayers have realized soon.
I want to say why half-hearted, but also said that counter-point, I want to say it, Alibaba's business is not growing as fast as the consumer market, it is after all business market. Guokai Sen also talked about just now, that is, a lot of things are no longer marketable, I think Buzhi Yu no longer marketable, I think back Buzhi Yu no longer marketable, but for businesses, it accepts these things are a bit slower than the consumer market The. we look at Amazon, Amazon 97 years to do, be fairly profitable in 2004, and then do now, earn a lot of money in itself is quite great. I think Ali Baba in this business, I do not know why in 2006 to the present has such a growth, and I am particularly depressed, always deal with Alibaba, I never believed what they say. and now, whatever the outcome, this number came out, so I can see some things, and can believe some things. well, he said these.
Bingshu: I keep a gun, in fact, China's Alibaba e-commerce market is huge interest fast news, I think if Alibaba is listed, the stock price will certainly rise, whether he is doing Alibaba or do Taobao, or do Yahoo, its core is the merchant cash, shareholders cash, to his buddies cash, including the early to invest twenty million, give him a man child into TV ads 3000 million, Yahoo, tiger for a long time, that is, the impact of search, such a person is sure to make a variety of techniques, what the number of price-earnings ratio ah, what estimate how much ah, what flicker, so the stock price in the next 3 months rub Therefore, I advise you, if you are want to fry two to three one hundred thousand yuan to buy one, I guess you had to fire to get there. This must be careful.
Moderator: now a six to four, and than three or four.
Zhuhui Long: I think half-baked it, both sides had good words said to myself. you said, I feel optimistic about the market, so the encounter inside the industry, just like our stock market, the concept of what a bank concept C2C this concept from the inside, because now the Chinese market with a monopoly of the first, which can be said that the basic challenge is not simply asked for, I think this is his advantage. vulnerable than we said a little, I think this one exports children, in addition to U.S. pressure on this one other than the quality of Chinese-made, in fact, it is now also an issue for discussion, and now a lot of pressure. There is a Chinese domestic issue, we see that Ma of Hong Kong listed, only 5 Ma % of the shares, less of this fact in particular, mentioned this as the acquisition of intermediate cases. The end result is that inside directors, shareholders were sealed. I do not know that there are no similar plans for Ma, is one vote that the top four vote methods, otherwise, listed, get so much money, get paid more when it is easy to do a thing is an investment, blind investment, so I do not know the future will focus on Alibaba in this matter. I think this may be quite happy run.
Moderator: Here are no questions or challenges the view that they have just said? Well, following what we have to say? did not let on to it.
Lubbe Wang : I should talk about opening Sen PK. you can PK rule is that I now do?
Moderator: all right now, just now is our statement of his views, now formally ask it, we own weapons light out, and now exchange blows, and we are now fighting the principle of the text is the text fighting, militant fight the militant fight. we have to say based on the conduct of targeted questions.
Lubbe hope: just open Vacanti to several a point of view, of which about a possible slowdown in export growth, I also agree Zhuhui Long view. is to open Sen said China is indeed on the export of RMB appreciation is a pressure, then the quality of Chinese exports, if we order Chinese food products or Exports will also eat the dead, or eating dead pets, and then they put toys exported, the result will be the child victim, always the case that the impact of Chinese products is a very serious problem. But I think we Chinese developed to such a years, GDP has been growing at this rate, I still believe that our central government able to deal with this matter. So we are not controlled appreciation of the renminbi, nor is freely convertible, and capital markets are not freely convertible, is government-controlled Therefore, exports are expected within three to five years will not be a big impact, because China's GDP growth in exports or are we the most important one of the main driving force. This is the first point.
Ma said Ferguson second hand have so much money, why go public? is not from the shareholders of cash problems? fact we can see that not only did not cash out the shareholders, such as Yahoo, but not their value. I think Ma is so much money to get his role , as we recall 2003, when Ma got more than twenty million, three million U.S. dollars in investment, he said that money has not been used up, but suddenly took over eighty million U.S. dollars in a financing, we did he did not see to understand why so much money? he later came an Taobao, so now we can see that he listed among the ten billion dollars, in addition to outside the company Alibaba, there may be more than one billion dollars by the company to take go, the company took away the billions of dollars, I think we may need to pay more attention to it after what kind of strategic action.
third is the issue of tax on Alibaba, tax, I Ma said that one million handed over the tax day, this book is to see the arguments, he is now in addition to us, he left the income tax is more than seventy million U.S. dollars, among which more than seventy million U.S. dollars, that is, it also has a corporate tax, then this is the income tax more than seventy million U.S. dollars, we do not consider the income tax. we go based on his turnover by 5.5% to take out sales tax, then, that sales tax is more than seventy million U.S. dollars. and then Alibaba has over eight thousand employees, each employee's salary may have been more than 1,600, that is, each person will pay personal income tax, the payment of personal income tax is also the company's. That this up, one million yuan a day, maybe less, but this figure may not have much difference, after all, he also said the competent tax office, he handed over twenty-five million yuan of taxes.
there before, Ma said the words were out of media coverage later, I was beginning I did not believe, but e-commerce so I started to pay attention when I put all the media previously reported Ma say, go back and look, I have a feel, you are listening to what he said may be big, or may be irrelevant, then certainly recovered after six months will find him was justified, may not be 100% the truth, but at least 50% of his mouth the truth inside. is that Ma is the leader in the Chinese Internet see more long-term character of which a person, my view may point with most people here are not the same, or compare the relative, but I like this view.
Moderator: Well, thank you. drum under the palm, Should counterattack?
Guo Kaisen: To respond, but also two points. I understand the deeper, because I went to many factories, and now the Chinese market is such a case, the past, I have a friend's father, possibly in 99 years 98 Ma on the products in use, they began to tell me the effect was very good, in fact, I now many people are from Alibaba, Yahoo over, and now the problem here? now need to create an industry to upgrade itself, have done before shoes, clothing, make gifts, they demand, then this is very scattered. he needs the platform of Alibaba. but now, China has gradually improved its quality, that his buyer, his own Ye Hao economic power, Wal-Mart may have been a great buyer, so that the demand side, as I said those who own more than the demand side where to buy things, go to Vietnam, to those who may be more expensive place to go . Chinese-made some poor quality, because appreciation of the renminbi, 1:3.5 within the next two years is to see. So from this perspective, that is very popular now Alibaba challenge, this is my last Within a year, to chat with Ali Baba, more and harder to sell their products, many demand side that is not used to get this thing was such a reason. means that changes in the industry, that of course Alibaba must also deal with, which means that there is a very long process.
Moderator: to open shop in Vietnam, Myanmar shop.
Guokai Sen: The second largest shareholder, I think 10% of the stock show , 15% of the market must be someone out of cash, cash is certainly one, this I feel sure that someone took the cash to go.
Lubbe Hope: The market is selling his original shareholders? Alibaba Group, no the other three, that is, the original shareholders of Alibaba cash is cash the money back to Alibaba Group. Alibaba Group, as to stay in after the company Alibaba Group, Alibaba.com to make dividends, it may be cash, but Now Alibaba has not seen this. there is you say you know who Alibaba says his products are getting harder to sell things, I was doing when Baidu's bid ranking, it was said, Baidu above, there are many other issues, click, and I do not want to advertise on the Baidu. Baidu growth of 100% or why, because there are too many new advertisers, or find the way, so there is Alibaba the same situation.
Guo Kaisen: liar trick also being upgraded, and new.
Li Lihong: Alibaba above in a written form, that is, there are so many large shareholders, and each person's subconscious There are three, including one that can cash in, there is a short time can not be cashed, and in which major shareholders, major shareholders should be said that there are many such cash or support, so that I agreed.
Lubbe look: you said the grass-roots investors, Yahoo ICO buy one U.S. dollar to vote, and a portion to be allocated to Yahoo, and the other part of the Industrial and Commercial Bank to give, and the other part of the Southeast Asian region to give an interview in Hong Kong richest man, is to give them the provisions of this part can not be cashed within two years. Then there is basically no other no other agreement, that is his current, that is, such as our online city you see the Chief, you see the recent Internet City Administration , recently listed several Internet companies, the company is listed, is a cash. But Alibaba is not the case, the original shareholders of Alibaba who? 100% of the Group, is the company cash, money is the company to use.
Guo Kaisen: do not know who took the money, which many black?
Valley Long: I'll briefly talk about what I think Alibaba's prospectus looked after, it is actually a weak international operations, a total of Less than 30%. He is relatively high income, I think Alibaba's business model which I prefer it more in to help domestic enterprises do business in each other, I think this may be a little more. I that its business model is similar to a neutral potential such as play. He channels the past few years I think the layout is very good layout.
Lubbe look: In fact, this one is the business, we think business is very good, in fact, see the benefits, I give Alibaba much money, I do not have benefits, I will pay up to?
Bingshu: But this time I did not in the lottery next time I buy, the next is not in and buy. But the market not later.
Moderator: Why the future does not necessarily listed?
Bing Shu: Ma previously listed the final say, Ma 忽悠 who is who, but the listing is after all people have the final say in the buying and selling stocks, from the shareholders of these logical thinking and the thinking of these people are not buying a place. primarily is to enhance the PK, not the teacher asked the old Burt said he had first said the stock go up.
Lubbe look: Alibaba after I listed the performance say a few words, others to the views I mentioned, I venture to say a few words, because to stay listed Alibaba space is quite limited, so listed meet the 18 Hong Kong dollars after 20 dollars, I think this unlikely too, even if the rush to go, or will fall within a short time, after all, from the price-earnings ratio, or other, in terms of future growth was speaking, the shares have been spared.
Linming Jun: I said my point of view, I think we still have to comb the entire context of the Alibaba Group, they have to pay Po, and Taobao C2C, as well as Ali, the software, as well as Yahoo China, Yahoo China is now the network. I think it is listed, Ali Baba C2C business, which the Alibaba Group, the money I personally think that is spent on Taobao, my personal opinions do not represent the company view. is, I think Taobao should be Ma are most concerned about a company, so if we have a contrast, then injection pressure as pressure on Taobao, Alibaba can have some short term bullish, but some results from the point of view, I think this space is limited, you can stir fry the short term, but in the long run, I think this business The outbreak is not large, unless Tencent go up the.
Bingshu: That can not.
Linming Jun: So, I think the space is limited, and in particular business operator. In addition, I feel optimistic about Alibaba Taobao may be this one, because from the shareholders point of view, we can see Ma in B2B that not much has been earned. In addition to your innovation, can be seen from the report whether or not to see, and in particular, may be realizable.
Bingshu: Listed why not cash in? serving the people?
Zhuhui Long: I added one because I recently just friends for dinner with Ali Baba, so some information to know that Why are there so many groups of cash to the group? One important reason is that each unit of Alibaba Group, the layers can be dialogue with the group, for example, Taobao, Taobao's ...
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